Lautenberg Still Leads in Polls

Democrat Frank Lautenberg has a slight lead over Republican Douglas Forrester in the New Jersey Senate race, according to a poll released Thursday.

In the Fairleigh Dickinson University-Public Mind poll of likely voters, 44 percent favor Lautenberg while 38 percent support Forrester. The poll's findings are similar to two other polls released last week that also had Lautenberg slightly ahead.

The poll indicates that fewer Democrats appear likely to stray from the party now that Lautenberg has replaced Robert Torricelli on the ballot. Torricelli left the race nearly two weeks ago amid lingering questions about his ethics.

"I think Democrats were uncertain about supporting Torricelli," said Bruce Larson, poll analyst at FDU. "That's been a significant boost for the Democratic Party and a blow to the Forrester campaign."

Some Independents also shifted their support from Forrester when Lautenberg joined the race, the poll indicates. Forty-two percent of Independents support Lautenberg while 26 percent favor Forrester.

"Independents seem to be leaning heavily to Lautenberg all of a sudden," Larson said. "That's something that the Forrester camp has to be worried about."

Lautenberg, who served three terms in the Senate before retiring two years ago, is better known among voters. Only 16 percent have no opinion of him and 3 percent have never heard of him.

"The incumbency advantage is big, they have been hearing about Frank Lautenberg for 18 years," said Larson.

Name recognition continues to be a problem for Forrester with one in four voters saying they have no opinion of him and 7 percent saying they never heard of him.

The FDU-Public Mind survey of 590 likely New Jersey voters was conducted from Oct. 10 to 15. The poll has a sampling error margin of plus or minus four percentage points.

The last previous FDU-Public Mind poll, released Sept. 25, found Forrester in a virtual tie with Torricelli among likely voters.

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Author: NBC10/AP