Phillies Have Early Season Concerns
Let’s get this out of the way early – we know it’s early in the MLB season. This is a 162-game marathon, but after the first 15 games, there has to be some concern about the Phillies.
The Phillies began the week 7-8, which isn’t a disaster in the National League East, where the other top expected contender the New York Mets went 7-9 in their first 16 games.
The Atlanta Brave, who had an injury-plagued season a year ago, appear healthier (although the pitching staff is still short some injured arms). Unlike a year ago, the Braves, who started the week 10-6, appear to be a major factor.
The Miami Marlins can’t be discounted either, but this is more about the Phillies than their opponents.
Here are some early worries about the Phillies
1.Batting average and on base percentage. While many who subscribe by sabermetrics don’t place heavy weight on batting average, the Phillies are hitting just .221 (all statistics are to begin the week). That put the Phillies 25th in MLB. The Phillies simply aren’t getting on base enough. Their on base percentage (.307) was just 22nd.
2. Run differential. The Phillies -16 run differential was tied with Cincinnati for the second worst in the National League. Only the San Francisco Giants, who beat the Phillies two out of three games, were worse at -21. The Giants mark would be much worse had they not outscored the Phillies by nine runs in last week’s series.
3. Runs. The Phillies have scored 53 runs, which was 28th in MLB. Only the Giants (51) and Chicago White Sox (49) have scored fewer runs. The Phillies are averaging just 3.5 runs per game. That puts an awful lot of pressure on the pitching staff.
The Individual concerns
1.Alec Bohm. In a contract year, Bohm has gotten off to a disappointing start. Other than an opening day three-run home run, he has had just one other extra base hit in 14 games. Bohm was hitting .148 with 10 strikeouts and five walks. He has already been dropped out of the cleanup spot.
2. Adolis Garcia. Granted, he has been a major upgrade defensively in right field over Nick Castellanos, but after two subpar offensive seasons in Texas, Garcia hasn’t done much in his early Phillies career. He was batting .204 with just a .274 on bases percentage. Garcia had 17 strikeouts and four walks.
3. J.T. Realmuto. While Realmuto remains a major contributor handling the pitching staff, he has to supply more offense. He was hitting .212, although he did have a .350 on base percentage. Still, Realmuto had one RBI in his first 11 games. Realmuto has gone through bad offensive stretches where he has looked finished, only to come back and show some real life. The Phillies have to hope this happens again.
4. Bryson Stott. This is the third straight year that Stott has struggled, batting .190 even though he has had only four at-bats against lefthanded pitching.
5. Bryce Harper’s baserunning. Harper might have the worst base running instincts on the team. Trying to stretch a single into a double and being thrown out at second in Sunday’s 4-3 loss to Arizona, was another example of his reckless attitude on the bases.
6. Kyle Schwarber’s strikeouts. Schwarber has hit four home runs, and he has an impressive .379 on base percentage, helped by 12 walks, and a healthy .879 OPS, but he is striking out too much. He has struck out 24 times. Last year he struck out 197 times in 162 games. This year he is averaging 1.6 strikeouts per game, which would translate to 259 if he plays all 162 games. That would way exceed his single-season high of 215 strikeouts.
7. Jesus Luzardo. After signing a lucrative contract extension, Luzardo has been hit hard in two of his three starts. The one gem came against the lowly Colorado Rockies.
Again, by this time next week, things could change. That is the way the long MLB season works with so many peaks and valleys. Still, the Phillies have enough early season concerns that need to be corrected if they are to earn a fifth consecutive playoff berth.
Alec Bohm / Marc Narducci
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Author: Marc Narducci
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