Phillies Offseason Promises Plenty of Intrigue
the Phillies have plenty of moves to make as they look to increase their streak of four consecutive post-season berths.
Each year has brought its own postseason heartache, with the Phillies losing to Houston in the 2022 World Series, to Arizona in the 2023 National League Championship Series and to the NY Mets and Lost Angeles Dodgers in each of the last two National League Division series.
Even with the expanded playoffs which now includes the three division winners and three wild card teams, it is still difficult to keep going to the postseason.
Phillies fans are probably getting a little spoiled. The expectations to reach the playoffs will again be high in 2026, but can they make enough moves to make them a viable World Series threat?
It will be interesting to see if president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski looks to make some big moves, or just tweaks a roster that is still very talented, but getting on in age.
Here are some of the key decisions:
The free agents
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The Phillies have extended a one-year, $22 million qualifying offer to two of their free agents, designated hitter Kyle Schwarber and left-hander Ranger Suarez.
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The Phillies have extended a one-year, $22 million qualifying offer to two of their free agents, designated hitter Kyle Schwarber and left-hander Ranger Suarez.
Both have until Nov. 18 to accept or reject the offer. Both are expected to reject the offer and test their value on the market. If they sign elsewhere, the Phillies will receive compensation picks following the fourth round of the draft.
A player can reject a qualifying offer and still sign with that team.
The Phillies are expected to go hard to sign Schwarber, who gave them tremendous value on his four-year, $79 million contract. (All figures courtesy of Spotrac.com).
The team went to the playoffs all four years with Schwarber in the lineup and he was known as a great clubhouse presence. It also didn’t hurt that he hit .226 (with a .349 on-base percentage) along with 187 home runs and 434 RBI.
Nobody is denying that Schwarber will likely receive a big raise. The negatives are that he turns 33 in March and offers little to no defensive flexibility.
The big contract question is number of years. Ideally, a four-year deal would be best for the Phillies, but there are teams that may offer beyond that to Schwarber. If we had to make a guess, we would say they would keep him, but there will be other suitors involved.
Suarez played last season on a one-year, $8.8 million contract. The lefthander has battled some injuries during his Phillies tenure, but he has been a quality pitcher in the regular season and postseason. His postseason ERA is 1.48 in 42.2 innings. This past season for the Phillies he was 12-8 with a 3.20 ERA.
There seems to be a general consensus that the Phillies won’t be able to afford him. He is represented by Scott Boras, so the negotiation with any team won’t be easy.
The Phillies two other main free agents are catcher J.T. Realmuto and centerfielder Harrison Bader. There is no doubt that the Phillies want Realmuto back, but he turns 35 in March and has been in an offensive decline. His B-War has declined each of the past three seasons, to 2.5 this past year.
Realmuto has also seen his power decline. This was his seventh season with the Phillies and his slugging percentage of .384 this past year was his lowest with the team.
Yet, he is still a strong defensive catcher and gets rave reviews with the way he handles a pitching staff. Plus, despite his age, he continues to be durable. This past season he caught 132 games.
The Phillies would ideally like to sign him to a two-year contract. He averaged $23.1 million on his previous five-year deal. There seems to be little chance of him getting either that average or those number of years, but we could see teams offering a three-year contract for $50 million.
Bader was a great acquisition at the trade deadline from Minnesota. In 50 games with the Phillies his slash line was .305/.361/.463.
His career slash line is .247/.313/401, so one has to wonder if what he did with the Phillies is sustainable. Bader, who turns 32 in June, played last season on a one-year, $6.25 million deal. The Phillies would bring him back for that amount in a heartbeat, but he likely will be looking for a higher AAV and for more years.
The guess here is that he won’t be back, but anything that happens wouldn’t be a surprise.
There are three other Phillies free agents, relief pitchers David Robertson and Jordan Romano and outfielder Max Kepler. There should be little to no chance that any of the three will return.
First move
Last week the Phillies announced that they have exercised the club option on left-handed pitcher Jose Alvardo for this upcoming season. He will earn $9 million. Alvardo had a lost season a year ago with his 80-game in-season suspension and his postseason ban as well. They missed him, but he hasn’t really pitched well for two seasons now. He has a 4.00 ERA in 94 games over the last two years. He will be 31 in May, still throws near 100 MPH and is left-handed, so the Phillies want to take a final flyer on him.
Last week the Phillies announced that they have exercised the club option on left-handed pitcher Jose Alvardo for this upcoming season. He will earn $9 million. Alvardo had a lost season a year ago with his 80-game in-season suspension and his postseason ban as well. They missed him, but he hasn’t really pitched well for two seasons now. He has a 4.00 ERA in 94 games over the last two years. He will be 31 in May, still throws near 100 MPH and is left-handed, so the Phillies want to take a final flyer on him.
There are plenty of possibilities this off-season, but determining the Schwarber and Realmuto situations likely have to come before attempting to sign any big-dollar free agent and if both are brought back, the Phillies might find it difficult to entertain another mega-signing.
Photo: Kyle Schwarber / Marc Narducci
Author: Marc Narducci
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