Looking at the Phillies At The All-Star Break

When the Phillies began the season 9-19, if somebody would have told them that they would be 54-43 and just two games behind the first place Atlantic Braves in the National League East, they would have signed up for it immediately.

The Braves, with once a double-digit lead over the Phillies, are in a dogfight in the East and the resilient Miami Marlins are only four games behind Atlanta.

If the season ended today, the Phillies would earn the No. 2 wildcard spot.

While it looks good from where the Phillies started from, they obviously can’t take their foot off the gas with 65 games remaining.

1.Zack Wheeler. A 10-1 record and 2.01 ERA has put Wheeler right in the thick of the Cy Young race. He has made a remarkable comeback from thoracic outlet surgery. The only mistake he made was turning down the All-Star invitation. Sure, he was angry not to be named sooner, but All-Star berths are great on the resume for pitchers with Hall of Fame aspirations.

2. Cristopher Sanchez. While he has had a few hiccups after his 50.2 inning scoreless streak, Sanchez is also very much in the Cy Young picture. He is 11-4 with a 2.62 ERA and had a strong start heading into the break – seven innings, 10 hits (maybe a few too many), two earned runs, seven strikeouts and one walk in a 4-2 win over what had been a surging Detroit Tigers team. Having Wheeler and Sanchez, or Sanchez and Wheeler line up in any playoff series has to be a positive as long as they have plenty left in the tank by the postseason. Sanchez is second in MLB with 127.1 innings pitched. That total will have to be watched down the stretch.

3. Kyle Schwarber. He has a .254/.367/.560 slash line and leads MLB with 32 home runs. Schwarber, who has driven in 59 runs, has struck out 144 times, which is the tradeoff for all the home runs. He has become among the more feared hitters in the league, and we are going to have to look at his HOF trajectory over the next several seasons.

4. Jhoan Duran. When a team has a lights-out closer, it makes all the difference in the world. He is 1-3 with a .138 ERA and 24 saves in 25 opportunities. Duran deservedly made his first all-star game, and he is somebody who thrives on constant work. That said, his innings will have to be watched as they are now at a manageable 32.2.

5. Derek Hill. The former first round draft choice who had bounced around, has made a great first impression with the Phillies. He has made two of the best catches this season in centerfield and is batting .327, albeit in just 52 at-bats. Still, he has provided energy to the Phillies, reprising the role last season Harrison Bader.

1.Can anybody in the bullpen step up? Admit it, other than Duran, does anybody else inspire confidence? Orion Kerkering is 6-0 with a 2.43 ERA and on paper that looks good. Yet he has struggled throwing strikes recently. Can Kerkering or any other reliever be counted on in October? Look for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to acquire bullpen reinforcements by the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

2. Can Aaron Nola, after two solid but not spectacular starts, be counted on as a No. 4 starter? In his last two games, Nola has allowed five runs over 12 innings, with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Those are numbers that would be satisfactory for a No. 4 starter. If Nola can be that person, then the Phillies have only one other starting pitching worry which is…

3. Is there a fifth starter that can be serviceable? Andrew Painter had to be sent down after going 1-8 with a 7.11 ERA. He had pitched well in his first two starts for AAA Lehigh Valley, but then had a disastrous outing on Friday: 2.2 IP, 8 hits, seven runs, all earned. Yikes. This is a major step back and one has to wonder if he will get another shot this year. If not, somebody more serviceable has to be the No. 5 starter. Allen Rangel (4.19 ERA) doesn’t appear ready to seize the No. 5 starter job. The Phillies can’t keep having bullpen games every fifth day, especially the way the bullpen is pitching. Dombrowski might be looking at somebody who can give five serviceable innings as a fifth starter.

4. Is Trea Turner ready to come out of his funk? Turner’s slash line of .236/.284/.355 won’t cut if for the leadoff man and supposed offensive catalyst. He keeps being measured by his $300 million contract, but these stats aren’t great for somebody on a minimum salary. Worse is the fact that his defense at shortstop hasn’t been any better. He is 33^rd among all MLB shortstop in outs above average at -5. The Phillies have to hope that the break is good for Turner and that he starts the second half of the season playing much better at the plate and in the field.

5. Can Alec Bohm (.215) and J.T. Realmuto (.206) step it up to be at least competent offensively. Right now, the Phillies are relying too much on Schwarber and Bryce Harper and need more help. Even Brandon Marsh (.301) is showing signs of regression, so Bohm and Realmuto need to provide more offensively.